http://blog.oddhead.com/2006/11/10/can-prediction-markets-be-right-too-often/ Musings of a computer scientist and Yahoo on prediction markets, gambling, and estimating the odds of everything Sat, 13 Mar 2010 09:56:19 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 http://blog.oddhead.com/2006/11/10/can-prediction-markets-be-right-too-often/comment-page-1/#comment-66 Midas Oracle .ORG » Blog Archive » SCIENTIST DAVE PENNOCK IS LAUGHING ALL THE WAY TO HIS NEW YORK BANK. Wed, 29 Aug 2007 19:43:22 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2006/11/10/can-prediction-markets-be-right-too-often/#comment-66 [...] SCIENTIST DAVE PENNOCK IS LAUGHING ALL THE WAY TO HIS NEW YORK BANK. … Psstt… TradeSports traders… Wanna be rich?… Do like David Pennock: Get a PhD… with a major in probabilities… Although TradeSports’s individual state predictions and overall Senate prediction were entirely consistent, one might argue that traders underestimated the degree of dependence (correlation) among states’ elections. In fact, I made a few bucks selling the “GOP Senate control” contract on TradeSports using exactly that reasoning. The truth is, I probably just got lucky, and it’s nearly impossible to say whether TradeSports underestimated or overestimated much of anything based on a single election. Such is part of the difficulty of evaluating probabilistic forecasts. Read the last blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:Pinching Adam Siegel’s nose… AGAIN.We made quite a lasting impression.Midas Oracle's vocation is to inform people, not to keep secrets.Does Sarah V. Jones exist really?CNBC betting exchange - Connecting the dots - CNBC prediction marketBig firms experimenting with internal prediction markets as IAMShare This [...] [...] SCIENTIST DAVE PENNOCK IS LAUGHING ALL THE WAY TO HIS NEW YORK BANK. … Psstt… TradeSports traders… Wanna be rich?… Do like David Pennock: Get a PhD… with a major in probabilities… Although TradeSports’s individual state predictions and overall Senate prediction were entirely consistent, one might argue that traders underestimated the degree of dependence (correlation) among states’ elections. In fact, I made a few bucks selling the “GOP Senate control” contract on TradeSports using exactly that reasoning. The truth is, I probably just got lucky, and it’s nearly impossible to say whether TradeSports underestimated or overestimated much of anything based on a single election. Such is part of the difficulty of evaluating probabilistic forecasts. Read the last blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:Pinching Adam Siegel’s nose… AGAIN.We made quite a lasting impression.Midas Oracle’s vocation is to inform people, not to keep secrets.Does Sarah V. Jones exist really?CNBC betting exchange – Connecting the dots – CNBC prediction marketBig firms experimenting with internal prediction markets as IAMShare This [...]

]]> http://blog.oddhead.com/2006/11/10/can-prediction-markets-be-right-too-often/comment-page-1/#comment-65 Midas Oracle .ORG » Blog Archive » How to publish a high-quality prediction market blog Mon, 29 Jan 2007 11:30:44 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2006/11/10/can-prediction-markets-be-right-too-often/#comment-65 [...] #7. State the truism that evaluating probabilistic forecasts based on a single data point is impossible. [...] [...] #7. State the truism that evaluating probabilistic forecasts based on a single data point is impossible. [...]

]]> http://blog.oddhead.com/2006/11/10/can-prediction-markets-be-right-too-often/comment-page-1/#comment-64 Oddhead Blog: Prediction Markets, Gambling, Electronic Commerce, Artificial Intelligence: David Pennock: Yahoo! Research Tue, 26 Dec 2006 12:06:03 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2006/11/10/can-prediction-markets-be-right-too-often/#comment-64 [...] Can prediction markets be right too often? [...] [...] Can prediction markets be right too often? [...]

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