Comments on: Irrefutable evidence of inefficient markets http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/01/12/irrefutable-evidence-of-inefficient-markets/ Musings of a computer scientist and Yahoo on prediction markets, gambling, and estimating the odds of everything Sat, 13 Mar 2010 09:56:19 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Spread Betting King http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/01/12/irrefutable-evidence-of-inefficient-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-120 Spread Betting King Tue, 21 Apr 2009 11:59:33 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/01/12/irrefutable-evidence-of-inefficient-markets/#comment-120 Interesting. I guess efficient market theory is in a way defined by exceptions and examples of irrational hype like these. It would be interesting to see your perspective a couple of years on from this post, now that the iphone has been around and sold in record numbers, despite the price barrier. Was that speculation really irrational or was it justified? Also was it (or behaviour like it) a precursor to the burst bubble marketplace we are in today? Interesting. I guess efficient market theory is in a way defined by exceptions and examples of irrational hype like these. It would be interesting to see your perspective a couple of years on from this post, now that the iphone has been around and sold in record numbers, despite the price barrier. Was that speculation really irrational or was it justified? Also was it (or behaviour like it) a precursor to the burst bubble marketplace we are in today?

]]> By: sharetipsinfo http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/01/12/irrefutable-evidence-of-inefficient-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-119 sharetipsinfo Thu, 12 Mar 2009 09:10:55 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/01/12/irrefutable-evidence-of-inefficient-markets/#comment-119 In the time of recession one job or one work is hardly fulfilling needs of people. So everyone is looking for supplementary source of income. Now the question is what can be that source of income in such a bad phase of economy?? Well it’s very difficult to start new business at this point of time as it requires lot of cash and efforts. So again question is how to make more money in such conditions when needs are same and income is low? We strongly suggest that if you like to take bit of risk and don’t want to spend too much money and time on new venture then stock market is the right place for you. To be very frank this is not the right time for investment that is for long term to medium term investment but every day is a favourable day for day trading. No matter if NSE or <a href="http://www.sharetipsinfo.com" title="BSE" rel="nofollow">BSE</a> is bullish or bearish as In stock market one can earn in both of these trends. So just think about it and see if stock market can be the right place to make some extra money. Please feel free to contact us for any query. Regards <a href="http://www.sharetipsinfo.com" title="SHARETIPSINFO TEAM" rel="nofollow">SHARETIPSINFO TEAM </a> In the time of recession one job or one work is hardly fulfilling needs of people. So everyone is looking for supplementary source of income.
Now the question is what can be that source of income in such a bad phase of economy??

Well it’s very difficult to start new business at this point of time as it requires lot of cash and efforts. So again question is how to make more money in such conditions when needs are same and income is low?

We strongly suggest that if you like to take bit of risk and don’t want to spend too much money and time on new venture then stock market is the right place for you.
To be very frank this is not the right time for investment that is for long term to medium term investment but every day is a favourable day for day trading. No matter if NSE or BSE
is bullish or bearish as In stock market one can earn in both of these trends.

So just think about it and see if stock market can be the right place to make some extra money.

Please feel free to contact us for any query.

Regards
SHARETIPSINFO TEAM

]]> By: Anu http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/01/12/irrefutable-evidence-of-inefficient-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-118 Anu Sat, 14 Apr 2007 15:56:40 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/01/12/irrefutable-evidence-of-inefficient-markets/#comment-118 Does a share price of a company react to available information such that it isnt possible for an abnormal gain to be made by using such information? Does a share price of a company react to available information such that it isnt possible for an abnormal gain to be made by using such information?

]]> By: Midas Oracle .ORG » Blog Archive » Does wisdom require markets? http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/01/12/irrefutable-evidence-of-inefficient-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-117 Midas Oracle .ORG » Blog Archive » Does wisdom require markets? Fri, 09 Feb 2007 13:56:19 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/01/12/irrefutable-evidence-of-inefficient-markets/#comment-117 [...] Does wisdom require markets? The Midas Oracle choir — I include myself here — preaches markets as the best way to tap wisdom in crowds. Markets force people to put money where their mouths are. Markets impose a Darwinism on accuracy. Markets are efficient. Markets beat pollsters and pundits at their own game. And so forth. But I’ll play devil’s advocate today (hot off the heels of playing heretic): do we really need markets? [...] [...] Does wisdom require markets? The Midas Oracle choir — I include myself here — preaches markets as the best way to tap wisdom in crowds. Markets force people to put money where their mouths are. Markets impose a Darwinism on accuracy. Markets are efficient. Markets beat pollsters and pundits at their own game. And so forth. But I’ll play devil’s advocate today (hot off the heels of playing heretic): do we really need markets? [...]

]]> By: Midas Oracle .ORG » Blog Archive » How to publish a high-quality prediction market blog http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/01/12/irrefutable-evidence-of-inefficient-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-116 Midas Oracle .ORG » Blog Archive » How to publish a high-quality prediction market blog Mon, 29 Jan 2007 14:38:27 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/01/12/irrefutable-evidence-of-inefficient-markets/#comment-116 [...] #15. Say something provocative about the efficient market hypothesis, and be sure to expose some flaws in your reasoning —that way some inspiration-free bloggers will spot them and link to your piece (it’s called “link bait”). [...] [...] #15. Say something provocative about the efficient market hypothesis, and be sure to expose some flaws in your reasoning —that way some inspiration-free bloggers will spot them and link to your piece (it’s called “link bait”). [...]

]]> By: Oddhead Blog: Prediction Markets, Gambling, Electronic Commerce, Artificial Intelligence: David Pennock: Yahoo! Research http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/01/12/irrefutable-evidence-of-inefficient-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-115 Oddhead Blog: Prediction Markets, Gambling, Electronic Commerce, Artificial Intelligence: David Pennock: Yahoo! Research Mon, 22 Jan 2007 14:41:59 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/01/12/irrefutable-evidence-of-inefficient-markets/#comment-115 [...] Irrefutable evidence of inefficient markets [...] [...] Irrefutable evidence of inefficient markets [...]

]]> By: Barry Ritholtz http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/01/12/irrefutable-evidence-of-inefficient-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-114 Barry Ritholtz Sun, 21 Jan 2007 11:42:27 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/01/12/irrefutable-evidence-of-inefficient-markets/#comment-114 The Market is far from perfectly efficient -- it is, at best, <a href="http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/11/the_mostlykinda.html" rel="nofollow">kinda-eventually-sorta-mostly-Efficient</a>. Indeed, as was the case in Enron, the market can be <a href="http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2006/01/the_astonishing.html" rel="nofollow">Astonishingly Inefficient</a> But since you brought up Apple, consider how long th iPod was out prior to Apple's stock moving upwards: YEARS. That's <a href="http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/03/the_hardly_effi.html" rel="nofollow">Hardly Efficient</a>. The Market is far from perfectly efficient — it is, at best, kinda-eventually-sorta-mostly-Efficient.

Indeed, as was the case in Enron, the market can be Astonishingly Inefficient

But since you brought up Apple, consider how long th iPod was out prior to Apple’s stock moving upwards: YEARS. That’s Hardly Efficient.

]]> By: Scott http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/01/12/irrefutable-evidence-of-inefficient-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-113 Scott Wed, 17 Jan 2007 20:26:24 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/01/12/irrefutable-evidence-of-inefficient-markets/#comment-113 I believe the drop at the start was due to a misquote that the keynote was only going to be about Macs, and thus there would be no iPhone. (The statement was actually that the keynote wouldn't be about Macs.) I believe the drop at the start was due to a misquote that the keynote was only going to be about Macs, and thus there would be no iPhone. (The statement was actually that the keynote wouldn’t be about Macs.)

]]> By: James Grimmelmann http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/01/12/irrefutable-evidence-of-inefficient-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-112 James Grimmelmann Wed, 17 Jan 2007 19:24:16 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/01/12/irrefutable-evidence-of-inefficient-markets/#comment-112 I have no particular confidence that Apple stock was "correctly" priced before the announcement. If you look at the movement in proportional terms, it doesn't seem out of line with the value assigned by the market to Apple in general. It wasn't just the phone -- it was the astonishing number of new pieces of polish and framework involved in the phone: multi-touch, proximity sensors, OS X under the hood, Google Maps integration, WiFi and Bluetooth components (even if the iPhone itself doesn't do much with them), the widescreen at super-high resolution -- there was a lot in that announcement that Apple didn't have to deliver in order to have something it could call an "iPhone" without embarrassment. These details add a lot of possibilities for future devices and technology from Apple; they suggest that it's going to be a serious and sustained move into new market segments. Looking at your chart, the thing I wonder about is the drop right at the start of the program, and the climb back _before_ the iPhone announcement. I have no particular confidence that Apple stock was “correctly” priced before the announcement. If you look at the movement in proportional terms, it doesn’t seem out of line with the value assigned by the market to Apple in general. It wasn’t just the phone — it was the astonishing number of new pieces of polish and framework involved in the phone: multi-touch, proximity sensors, OS X under the hood, Google Maps integration, WiFi and Bluetooth components (even if the iPhone itself doesn’t do much with them), the widescreen at super-high resolution — there was a lot in that announcement that Apple didn’t have to deliver in order to have something it could call an “iPhone” without embarrassment. These details add a lot of possibilities for future devices and technology from Apple; they suggest that it’s going to be a serious and sustained move into new market segments.

Looking at your chart, the thing I wonder about is the drop right at the start of the program, and the climb back _before_ the iPhone announcement.

]]> By: Nick http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/01/12/irrefutable-evidence-of-inefficient-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-111 Nick Wed, 17 Jan 2007 18:40:15 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/01/12/irrefutable-evidence-of-inefficient-markets/#comment-111 Isn't part of the gain surely due to the fact that investors, when seeing the iPhone actually introduced, believe that <strong>other</strong> investors will "irrationally" bid up the stock price? i.e. some sort of meta-psychology. Isn’t part of the gain surely due to the fact that investors, when seeing the iPhone actually introduced, believe that other investors will “irrationally” bid up the stock price? i.e. some sort of meta-psychology.

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