Comments on: Betting on Sirius and XM to … die http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/04/18/betting-on-sirius-and-xm-to-die/ Musings of a computer scientist on predictions, odds, and markets Thu, 09 Sep 2010 14:37:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.1 By: David Pennock http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/04/18/betting-on-sirius-and-xm-to-die/#comment-183 David Pennock Mon, 16 Jun 2008 21:39:20 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/04/18/betting-on-sirius-and-xm-to-die/#comment-183 Here is an article with a similar argument to my own, citing a more recent development (AOL Music on iPhone): http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/6/iphone_aol_radio Here is an article with a similar argument to my own, citing a more recent development (AOL Music on iPhone):

http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/6/iphone_aol_radio

]]> By: Midas Oracle .ORG » Blog Archive » How to make Midas Oracle work for you http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/04/18/betting-on-sirius-and-xm-to-die/#comment-182 Midas Oracle .ORG » Blog Archive » How to make Midas Oracle work for you Thu, 03 May 2007 11:46:22 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/04/18/betting-on-sirius-and-xm-to-die/#comment-182 [...] - Put your most important sentence(s) in bold —which is what I’m doing right now ( ). Yahoo! research scientist David Pennock prefers highlighting his most important sentences in yellow. Most people don’t read on the Web; they scan. Thus, help them scanning your text. [...] [...] – Put your most important sentence(s) in bold —which is what I’m doing right now ( ). Yahoo! research scientist David Pennock prefers highlighting his most important sentences in yellow. Most people don’t read on the Web; they scan. Thus, help them scanning your text. [...]

]]> By: MUSCLE13 http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/04/18/betting-on-sirius-and-xm-to-die/#comment-181 MUSCLE13 Fri, 20 Apr 2007 22:38:46 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/04/18/betting-on-sirius-and-xm-to-die/#comment-181 "Also, Internet radio may not be as insignificant/fragmented as you think." I have no doubt you are correct that the internet will be pervasive in the car. I also think you are definitely correct that internet radio is wildly popular. I read it doubled its audience last year. I think it may have 40 million or more listeners already. Free Terrestrial radio is already wildly popular with 95% of the people in this country listening. Maybe internet can even reach that one day. BUT......WHAT WILL PEOPLE PAY FOR? 10,000 terrestrial stations, a million internet stations, OR Howard Stern and Major League Baseball. Answer is obvious. Content is king. People pay for content. Satellite radio has the content. Will big internet radio like AOL or Yahoo acquire content and move the internet in the right direction? Doubt it. Not as long as they view themselves as technology companies instead of the media companies that they should have become 10 years ago. “Also, Internet radio may not be as insignificant/fragmented as you think.”

I have no doubt you are correct that the internet will be pervasive in the car. I also think you are definitely correct that internet radio is wildly popular. I read it doubled its audience last year. I think it may have 40 million or more listeners already. Free Terrestrial radio is already wildly popular with 95% of the people in this country listening. Maybe internet can even reach that one day. BUT……WHAT WILL PEOPLE PAY FOR? 10,000 terrestrial stations, a million internet stations, OR Howard Stern and Major League Baseball. Answer is obvious. Content is king. People pay for content. Satellite radio has the content. Will big internet radio like AOL or Yahoo acquire content and move the internet in the right direction? Doubt it. Not as long as they view themselves as technology companies instead of the media companies that they should have become 10 years ago.

]]> By: Midas Oracle .ORG » Blog Archive » Let’s create the Prediction Market Coalition Forces. http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/04/18/betting-on-sirius-and-xm-to-die/#comment-180 Midas Oracle .ORG » Blog Archive » Let’s create the Prediction Market Coalition Forces. Fri, 20 Apr 2007 15:53:55 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/04/18/betting-on-sirius-and-xm-to-die/#comment-180 [...] The Yahoo! “research scientist”: One of the great things about intrade (recently split from TradeSports) is that they are open to suggestions from wide-eyed academics. […] [...] [...] The Yahoo! “research scientist”: One of the great things about intrade (recently split from TradeSports) is that they are open to suggestions from wide-eyed academics. […] [...]

]]> By: Midas Oracle .ORG » Blog Archive » David Pennock, John Delaney’s poodle http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/04/18/betting-on-sirius-and-xm-to-die/#comment-174 Midas Oracle .ORG » Blog Archive » David Pennock, John Delaney’s poodle Fri, 20 Apr 2007 13:51:07 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/04/18/betting-on-sirius-and-xm-to-die/#comment-174 [...] David Pennock, John Delaney’s poodle The Yahoo! “research scientist”: One of the great things about intrade (recently split from TradeSports) is that they are open to suggestions from wide-eyed academics. […] [...] [...] David Pennock, John Delaney’s poodle The Yahoo! “research scientist”: One of the great things about intrade (recently split from TradeSports) is that they are open to suggestions from wide-eyed academics. […] [...]

]]> By: David Pennock http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/04/18/betting-on-sirius-and-xm-to-die/#comment-179 David Pennock Fri, 20 Apr 2007 01:50:17 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/04/18/betting-on-sirius-and-xm-to-die/#comment-179 Thanks for the great/insightful comments. You may well be right. I'm still convinced that Internet will have equal or greater penetration into cars for other reasons (maps, traffic, news, info, communication, etc.), so the question becomes whether consumers will pay for both. Also, Internet radio may not be as insignificant/fragmented as you think. Yahoo! Launchcast alone averaged 2.3 million unique listeners per week in December 2006: http://www.arbitron.com/onlineradio/dec_ratings_2006.htm Thanks for the great/insightful comments. You may well be right. I’m still convinced that Internet will have equal or greater penetration into cars for other reasons (maps, traffic, news, info, communication, etc.), so the question becomes whether consumers will pay for both.

Also, Internet radio may not be as insignificant/fragmented as you think. Yahoo! Launchcast alone averaged 2.3 million unique listeners per week in December 2006: http://www.arbitron.com/onlineradio/dec_ratings_2006.htm

]]> By: MUSCLE13 http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/04/18/betting-on-sirius-and-xm-to-die/#comment-178 MUSCLE13 Thu, 19 Apr 2007 23:18:33 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/04/18/betting-on-sirius-and-xm-to-die/#comment-178 "You’re right, my argument is mainly about music, but music is a big driver of satellite radio sales, at least as big as the specialized content." When Howard signed with Sirius about 2 years ago they had 600 hundred thousand subscribers. Today they have over 6 million subscribers with Howard being on the air just a little over a year. There is no way music is as big a driver as Howard or specialized content. Not even close. "Internet radio can pay for content too (and once they have distribution they will have the funding)." About a million internet radio stations. Very fragmented industry. Doubt that any of them will have the funding or spend the money for bigtime content. Its possible. I doubt internet radio goes in that direction. Too fragmented. By that time Sirius and XM will be in just about every car with all the major content wrapped up. “You’re right, my argument is mainly about music, but music is a big driver of satellite radio sales, at least as big as the specialized content.”

When Howard signed with Sirius about 2 years ago they had 600 hundred thousand subscribers. Today they have over 6 million subscribers with Howard being on the air just a little over a year. There is no way music is as big a driver as Howard or specialized content. Not even close.

“Internet radio can pay for content too (and once they have distribution they will have the funding).”

About a million internet radio stations. Very fragmented industry. Doubt that any of them will have the funding or spend the money for bigtime content. Its possible. I doubt internet radio goes in that direction. Too fragmented. By that time Sirius and XM will be in just about every car with all the major content wrapped up.

]]> By: David Pennock http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/04/18/betting-on-sirius-and-xm-to-die/#comment-177 David Pennock Thu, 19 Apr 2007 12:52:52 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/04/18/betting-on-sirius-and-xm-to-die/#comment-177 > Content Is King! You're right, my argument is mainly about music, but music is a big driver of satellite radio sales, at least as big as the specialized content. I agree that Howard, NFL, etc. are also big drivers. However, satellite pays for this content on top of their huge infrastructure costs. Internet radio can pay for content too (and once they have distribution they will have the funding). Moreover, Internet radio can arguably pay a whole lot more for content than satellite, because they have comparatively negligible infrastructure costs. > Content Is King!

You’re right, my argument is mainly about music, but music is a big driver of satellite radio sales, at least as big as the specialized content.

I agree that Howard, NFL, etc. are also big drivers. However, satellite pays for this content on top of their huge infrastructure costs. Internet radio can pay for content too (and once they have distribution they will have the funding). Moreover, Internet radio can arguably pay a whole lot more for content than satellite, because they have comparatively negligible infrastructure costs.

]]> By: Midas Oracle .ORG » Blog Archive » David Pennock on the Sirius–XM prediction markets http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/04/18/betting-on-sirius-and-xm-to-die/#comment-176 Midas Oracle .ORG » Blog Archive » David Pennock on the Sirius–XM prediction markets Thu, 19 Apr 2007 10:39:36 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/04/18/betting-on-sirius-and-xm-to-die/#comment-176 [...] David Pennock on the Sirius–XM prediction markets David Pennock on the Sirius–XM prediction markets [...] [...] David Pennock on the Sirius–XM prediction markets David Pennock on the Sirius–XM prediction markets [...]

]]> By: MUSCLE13 http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/04/18/betting-on-sirius-and-xm-to-die/#comment-175 MUSCLE13 Thu, 19 Apr 2007 00:20:17 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/04/18/betting-on-sirius-and-xm-to-die/#comment-175 Good post. Unfortunately you missed the biggest point of electronic media going back to the beginnings of radio and the point that won't change no matter what happens. Content Is King! There are about a million internet radio stations. There is only one Howard Stern and only one National Football League and only one Oprah Winfrey. He who has the content in media ALWAYS wins no matter what the medium. Otherwise you are just one of a million internet stations with 5 listeners a piece. Good post. Unfortunately you missed the biggest point of electronic media going back to the beginnings of radio and the point that won’t change no matter what happens. Content Is King! There are about a million internet radio stations. There is only one Howard Stern and only one National Football League and only one Oprah Winfrey. He who has the content in media ALWAYS wins no matter what the medium. Otherwise you are just one of a million internet stations with 5 listeners a piece.

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