Comments on: A freakonomist takes on Big Weather and, … stumbles http://blog.oddhead.com/2008/04/25/a-freakonomist-takes-on-big-weather-and-stumbles/ Musings of a computer scientist on predictions, odds, and markets Thu, 09 Sep 2010 14:37:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.1 By: David Pennock http://blog.oddhead.com/2008/04/25/a-freakonomist-takes-on-big-weather-and-stumbles/#comment-285 David Pennock Mon, 05 May 2008 11:31:22 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2008/04/25/a-freakonomist-takes-on-big-weather-and-stumbles/#comment-285 Interesting observation, Jed. Makes sense. It would be interesting if under some simple non-linear utility model (e.g., viewers prefer PredictRain-NoRain to PredictNoRain-Rain) the forecasts are actually rational. Interesting observation, Jed. Makes sense. It would be interesting if under some simple non-linear utility model (e.g., viewers prefer PredictRain-NoRain to PredictNoRain-Rain) the forecasts are actually rational.

]]> By: Jed Christiansen http://blog.oddhead.com/2008/04/25/a-freakonomist-takes-on-big-weather-and-stumbles/#comment-284 Jed Christiansen Sat, 03 May 2008 18:27:04 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2008/04/25/a-freakonomist-takes-on-big-weather-and-stumbles/#comment-284 The calibration data is interesting for its inaccuracy. Not that I'm surprised; if I were an on-air personality, I'd forecast the most pessimistic rain forecast possible so that when it wasn't so bad viewers would be generally happy! The calibration data is interesting for its inaccuracy. Not that I’m surprised; if I were an on-air personality, I’d forecast the most pessimistic rain forecast possible so that when it wasn’t so bad viewers would be generally happy!

]]> By: David Pennock http://blog.oddhead.com/2008/04/25/a-freakonomist-takes-on-big-weather-and-stumbles/#comment-283 David Pennock Sat, 26 Apr 2008 10:32:08 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2008/04/25/a-freakonomist-takes-on-big-weather-and-stumbles/#comment-283 Yes, that's the main thing I was looking for, thanks Josh. (For readers, the study's author, J.D. Eggleston, <a href="http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/21/how-valid-are-tv-weather-forecasts/#comment-543621" rel="nofollow">posted these calibration results in the comments</a>.) You're right. Taking a step back, this "bug" is a relatively minor one in the midst of an interesting report that is the clear result of a lot of effort, care, and competence. I admire and applaud the work, and I would encourage other D.I.Y. -onomists -ologists -ientists and -icians to undertake similar studies despite nitpickers like me. Yes, that’s the main thing I was looking for, thanks Josh. (For readers, the study’s author, J.D. Eggleston, posted these calibration results in the comments.)

You’re right. Taking a step back, this “bug” is a relatively minor one in the midst of an interesting report that is the clear result of a lot of effort, care, and competence. I admire and applaud the work, and I would encourage other D.I.Y. -onomists -ologists -ientists and -icians to undertake similar studies despite nitpickers like me.

]]> By: josh reich http://blog.oddhead.com/2008/04/25/a-freakonomist-takes-on-big-weather-and-stumbles/#comment-282 josh reich Fri, 25 Apr 2008 19:01:00 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2008/04/25/a-freakonomist-takes-on-big-weather-and-stumbles/#comment-282 Is this the data you were looking for? Precip Prediction Actually Rained 0% 7.9% of the time 10% 5.3% 20% 10.8% 30% 19.2% 40% 26.5% 50% 27.8% 60% 46.2% 70% 58.0% 80% 58.1% 90% 63.6% 100% 66.7% Give the guy a break. It sounds like a lot of work to do that project. Have a great weekend! Is this the data you were looking for?

Precip Prediction Actually Rained
0% 7.9% of the time
10% 5.3%
20% 10.8%
30% 19.2%
40% 26.5%
50% 27.8%
60% 46.2%
70% 58.0%
80% 58.1%
90% 63.6%
100% 66.7%

Give the guy a break. It sounds like a lot of work to do that project.

Have a great weekend!

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