Comments on: A historic MayDay: The US government's call for help on regulating prediction markets http://blog.oddhead.com/2008/05/02/a-historic-mayday-the-us-governments-call-for-help-on-regulating-prediction-markets/ Musings of a computer scientist and Yahoo on prediction markets, gambling, and estimating the odds of everything Thu, 11 Mar 2010 12:32:57 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: David Pennock http://blog.oddhead.com/2008/05/02/a-historic-mayday-the-us-governments-call-for-help-on-regulating-prediction-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-294 David Pennock Sun, 05 Apr 2009 10:48:05 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2008/05/02/a-historic-mayday-the-us-governments-call-for-help-on-regulating-prediction-markets/#comment-294 MSNBC has a <a href="http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/05/15/1027078.aspx" rel="nofollow">nice article</a> discussing the CFTC call for comments on regulating prediction markets as well as the "Promise of prediction markets" article in the journal Science by 20+ economists including Nobel Laureates. MSNBC has a nice article discussing the CFTC call for comments on regulating prediction markets as well as the “Promise of prediction markets” article in the journal Science by 20+ economists including Nobel Laureates.

]]> By: David Pennock http://blog.oddhead.com/2008/05/02/a-historic-mayday-the-us-governments-call-for-help-on-regulating-prediction-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-293 David Pennock Wed, 04 Feb 2009 20:54:25 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2008/05/02/a-historic-mayday-the-us-governments-call-for-help-on-regulating-prediction-markets/#comment-293 Mike: running the exchange is probably illegal. Trading in the exchange is probably fine, or at least no one would enforce otherwise. However all the laws are <a href="http://blog.oddhead.com/2006/10/16/us-gambling-laws-bizarre-illogical-hypocritical-so-whats-legal/" rel="nofollow">very gray</a>. Chris: Yes. Mike: running the exchange is probably illegal. Trading in the exchange is probably fine, or at least no one would enforce otherwise. However all the laws are very gray.

Chris: Yes.

]]> By: Chris Masse http://blog.oddhead.com/2008/05/02/a-historic-mayday-the-us-governments-call-for-help-on-regulating-prediction-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-292 Chris Masse Sat, 28 Jun 2008 12:34:51 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2008/05/02/a-historic-mayday-the-us-governments-call-for-help-on-regulating-prediction-markets/#comment-292 Doctor David Pennock, - Do you favor the American Enterprise Institute's proposals to regulate the real-money prediction exchanges in the United States of America? - Are you pulling for FOR-PROFIT, real-money prediction exchanges? - Thanks, Doctor David Pennock,
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Do you favor the American Enterprise Institute’s proposals to regulate the real-money prediction exchanges in the United States of America?
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Are you pulling for FOR-PROFIT, real-money prediction exchanges?
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Thanks,

]]> By: Mke http://blog.oddhead.com/2008/05/02/a-historic-mayday-the-us-governments-call-for-help-on-regulating-prediction-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-291 Mke Sat, 10 May 2008 18:38:21 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2008/05/02/a-historic-mayday-the-us-governments-call-for-help-on-regulating-prediction-markets/#comment-291 Hi David, I don't mean to sound ignorant...but, are prediction market services (like Intrade) unquestionably illegal in the US? Particularly...Florida? I can't seem to confirm this anywhere. Thanks, Mike M Hi David,

I don’t mean to sound ignorant…but, are prediction market services (like Intrade) unquestionably illegal in the US? Particularly…Florida? I can’t seem to confirm this anywhere.

Thanks,

Mike M

]]> By: David Pennock http://blog.oddhead.com/2008/05/02/a-historic-mayday-the-us-governments-call-for-help-on-regulating-prediction-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-290 David Pennock Mon, 05 May 2008 11:25:55 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2008/05/02/a-historic-mayday-the-us-governments-call-for-help-on-regulating-prediction-markets/#comment-290 Thanks Paul, very intriguing. Looking forward to hearing more when available. Thanks Paul, very intriguing. Looking forward to hearing more when available.

]]> By: Paul http://blog.oddhead.com/2008/05/02/a-historic-mayday-the-us-governments-call-for-help-on-regulating-prediction-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-289 Paul Sat, 03 May 2008 05:05:02 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2008/05/02/a-historic-mayday-the-us-governments-call-for-help-on-regulating-prediction-markets/#comment-289 Hi David, Thanks for your optimistic spin on what I too consider a historic day for event and prediction markets and their participants. I have read your exchange with the midas oracle (Chris), and it was great to see how this release can be interpreted from both angles. "In short, this development leaves the optimist in me dreaming of a day in the not so distant future when US companies can try out some truly innovative products." You are very accurate with this assumption and will be surprised at one of the comments given by an organization presently establishing innovative sports based financial instruments. They have diligently been working with representatives from NERA and the CFTC in designing future instruments to meet the regulatory governance of the CFTC at some point in the not so distant future. It is my strong belief, that it is this one organization that has pushed the envelope to get the CFTC to acknowledge the need for governance on these highly innovative financial instruments. These facts align with the "willingness on the part of the CFTC to consider reasonable options and arguments." I am a private shareholder in this organization, and because of a binding NDA, I am unable to release anymore information until they produce their formal comment to the CFTC. Will check in again shortly once comments become available. Good night. Hi David,

Thanks for your optimistic spin on what I too consider a historic day for event and prediction markets and their participants. I have read your exchange with the midas oracle (Chris), and it was great to see how this release can be interpreted from both angles.

“In short, this development leaves the optimist in me dreaming of a day in the not so distant future when US companies can try out some truly innovative products.”

You are very accurate with this assumption and will be surprised at one of the comments given by an organization presently establishing innovative sports based financial instruments. They have diligently been working with representatives from NERA and the CFTC in designing future instruments to meet the regulatory governance of the CFTC at some point in the not so distant future. It is my strong belief, that it is this one organization that has pushed the envelope to get the CFTC to acknowledge the need for governance on these highly innovative financial instruments.

These facts align with the “willingness on the part of the CFTC to consider reasonable options and arguments.”

I am a private shareholder in this organization, and because of a binding NDA, I am unable to release anymore information until they produce their formal comment to the CFTC.

Will check in again shortly once comments become available.

Good night.

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