Comments on: Should there be a Prediction Market Institute? http://blog.oddhead.com/2009/03/11/should-there-be-a-prediction-market-institute/ Musings of a computer scientist on predictions, odds, and markets Wed, 08 Sep 2010 15:43:44 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.1 By: David Pennock http://blog.oddhead.com/2009/03/11/should-there-be-a-prediction-market-institute/#comment-429 David Pennock Fri, 20 Mar 2009 15:09:33 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/?p=313#comment-429 Oops, a clarification: I meant one could ask "Should there be a Prediction Institute?". I agree a Prediction Institute does not imply market-based, and that prediction and forecasting are roughly the same. I was saying that in a way there already is a "Prediction Institute" and its called the “International Institute of Forecasters”. I was thinking out loud whether the word "Prediction" is too broad. Then again, Chris Masse makes sense when he argues that the organization can keep "market" out of the name and still have a pretty heavy emphasis on markets and related "crowd wisdom" techniques. Oops, a clarification: I meant one could ask “Should there be a Prediction Institute?”. I agree a Prediction Institute does not imply market-based, and that prediction and forecasting are roughly the same.

I was saying that in a way there already is a “Prediction Institute” and its called the “International Institute of Forecasters”.

I was thinking out loud whether the word “Prediction” is too broad. Then again, Chris Masse makes sense when he argues that the organization can keep “market” out of the name and still have a pretty heavy emphasis on markets and related “crowd wisdom” techniques.

]]> By: Daniel http://blog.oddhead.com/2009/03/11/should-there-be-a-prediction-market-institute/#comment-432 Daniel Wed, 18 Mar 2009 01:03:45 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/?p=313#comment-432 I don't know. Why does a "Prediction Institute" imply a market based mechanism? I think predicting and forecasting are roughly the same thing. Markets are but one means of predicting or forecasting. I don’t know. Why does a “Prediction Institute” imply a market based mechanism? I think predicting and forecasting are roughly the same thing. Markets are but one means of predicting or forecasting.

]]> By: David Pennock http://blog.oddhead.com/2009/03/11/should-there-be-a-prediction-market-institute/#comment-431 David Pennock Sat, 14 Mar 2009 16:26:39 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/?p=313#comment-431 Fair enough: One could ask the same question about a "Prediction Institute". It's not necessarily about value but about where to focus. Note there already is an "International Institute of Forecasters" and it even has a <a href="http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/PM/" rel="nofollow">"Special Interest Group on Prediction Markets"</a>. Fair enough: One could ask the same question about a “Prediction Institute”.

It’s not necessarily about value but about where to focus.

Note there already is an “International Institute of Forecasters” and it even has a “Special Interest Group on Prediction Markets”.

]]> By: Daniel http://blog.oddhead.com/2009/03/11/should-there-be-a-prediction-market-institute/#comment-430 Daniel Wed, 11 Mar 2009 21:44:26 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/?p=313#comment-430 Where does this leave non market based mechanisms? Do they have no value? Where does this leave non market based mechanisms? Do they have no value?

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