Comments on: Psst: WeatherBill doesn’t know New Jersey is the new Florida: Place your bets now http://blog.oddhead.com/2009/07/16/new-york-june-weatherbill-bet/ Musings of a computer scientist on predictions, odds, and markets Thu, 09 Feb 2012 08:47:34 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: David Pennock http://blog.oddhead.com/2009/07/16/new-york-june-weatherbill-bet/#comment-3063 David Pennock Thu, 08 Jul 2010 17:52:33 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/?p=789#comment-3063 Update 2: I asked and WeatherBill is not updating that data, but rather focusing on some of their new contract types like this one: http://www.weatherbill.com/products/q/rainydays Update 2: I asked and WeatherBill is not updating that data, but rather focusing on some of their new contract types like this one: http://www.weatherbill.com/products/q/rainydays

]]> By: David Pennock http://blog.oddhead.com/2009/07/16/new-york-june-weatherbill-bet/#comment-2996 David Pennock Fri, 02 Jul 2010 17:02:32 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/?p=789#comment-2996 Update: Had you followed my goodbet you would have lost. June 2010 in New Jersey was a near drought. I still think it's a good bet. The price for June 2011 is actually a bit lower: $657.55. For some strange reason, WeatherBill is still not reporting what the contract payout would have been in 2009. Update: Had you followed my goodbet you would have lost. June 2010 in New Jersey was a near drought. I still think it’s a good bet. The price for June 2011 is actually a bit lower: $657.55.

For some strange reason, WeatherBill is still not reporting what the contract payout would have been in 2009.

]]> By: Vet http://blog.oddhead.com/2009/07/16/new-york-june-weatherbill-bet/#comment-1548 Vet Wed, 20 Jan 2010 08:00:53 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/?p=789#comment-1548 If it is real info then it's a big surprise. Anyways thanks for sharing with us. If it is real info then it’s a big surprise. Anyways thanks for sharing with us.

]]> By: David Pennock http://blog.oddhead.com/2009/07/16/new-york-june-weatherbill-bet/#comment-582 David Pennock Wed, 22 Jul 2009 21:32:32 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/?p=789#comment-582 > using a garden hose > > sprinkling of a glass of water onto an unattended fence post Wow, smart: now I really like the way you are thinking. You're right. > using a garden hose
>
> sprinkling of a glass of water onto an unattended fence post

Wow, smart: now I really like the way you are thinking. You’re right.

]]> By: FoolsGold http://blog.oddhead.com/2009/07/16/new-york-june-weatherbill-bet/#comment-575 FoolsGold Tue, 21 Jul 2009 14:30:53 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/?p=789#comment-575 Its not just the technology to alter the actual situation but the cheap and easy to use technology to alter the data relating to that situation. Most weather reporting stations are unattended automated devices whose geographic coordinates and hours of being attended are available on the web. Anything from tapping into the data cable to using a garden hose would alter the rain data. Just as some live sporting events have faced result-altering glitches that affect the odds makers but not the teams, some futures contracts may face result altering data manipulation that could well involve little more than a nocturnal sprinkling of a glass of water onto an unattended fence post. Normally one would not expect such a thing to take place, but once the element of substantial amounts of money enters into the picture, things like demolishing a power station near a stadium to disrupt the event is going to be very profitable. Its not just the technology to alter the actual situation but the cheap and easy to use technology to alter the data relating to that situation.
Most weather reporting stations are unattended automated devices whose geographic coordinates and hours of being attended are available on the web. Anything from tapping into the data cable to using a garden hose would alter the rain data.
Just as some live sporting events have faced result-altering glitches that affect the odds makers but not the teams, some futures contracts may face result altering data manipulation that could well involve little more than a nocturnal sprinkling of a glass of water onto an unattended fence post.
Normally one would not expect such a thing to take place, but once the element of substantial amounts of money enters into the picture, things like demolishing a power station near a stadium to disrupt the event is going to be very profitable.

]]> By: David Pennock http://blog.oddhead.com/2009/07/16/new-york-june-weatherbill-bet/#comment-568 David Pennock Mon, 20 Jul 2009 15:22:21 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/?p=789#comment-568 >hire a pilot who will seed clouds but keep his mouth shut? FoolsGold: I like the way you're thinking. :-) Weather is one of the purest prediction settings, yet even there technology is creeping in to allow manipulation. Hmm, maybe predicting sunspot activity is "safe" for at least the next decade. >hire a pilot who will seed clouds but keep his mouth shut?

FoolsGold: I like the way you’re thinking. :-) Weather is one of the purest prediction settings, yet even there technology is creeping in to allow manipulation. Hmm, maybe predicting sunspot activity is “safe” for at least the next decade.

]]> By: FoolsGold http://blog.oddhead.com/2009/07/16/new-york-june-weatherbill-bet/#comment-567 FoolsGold Mon, 20 Jul 2009 12:13:53 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/?p=789#comment-567 >hire a pilot who will seed clouds but keep his mouth shut? Gee, I had expected a flurry of responses unrelated to the combinatorial and predictive issues. Much of our weather reporting is from observation stations maintained by amateurs. Just as speculators often tried to 'corner' the market on wheat shipments by tying up all barge traffic to Chicago, don't you think speculators on rainfall contracts will think of such things as fudging the rainfall data? Its cheap, easy and profitable. Someone will eventually stoop to it. A prediction market has to be vigilant to such things if it is to survive. >hire a pilot who will seed clouds but keep his mouth shut?
Gee, I had expected a flurry of responses unrelated to the combinatorial and predictive issues.
Much of our weather reporting is from observation stations maintained by amateurs. Just as speculators often tried to ‘corner’ the market on wheat shipments by tying up all barge traffic to Chicago, don’t you think speculators on rainfall contracts will think of such things as fudging the rainfall data?
Its cheap, easy and profitable. Someone will eventually stoop to it.
A prediction market has to be vigilant to such things if it is to survive.

]]> By: David Pennock http://blog.oddhead.com/2009/07/16/new-york-june-weatherbill-bet/#comment-554 David Pennock Fri, 17 Jul 2009 19:35:53 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/?p=789#comment-554 Very interesting, Varun. That led me to explore different options. Here appears to be another good bet: choose "only start paying me after 9 rainy days" then the price is only $35.21 and you would have won $100 or more in 4 of the last 7 years. So almost 3-1 payoff at greater than 50/50 odds. Interestingly, the odds do not adjust as you increase the stakes. So for $352,110.86 you can arrange to be paid $1 million every day it rains beyond the ninth day. It seems unlikely they would actually honor that price quote. Very interesting, Varun. That led me to explore different options. Here appears to be another good bet:

choose “only start paying me after 9 rainy days”

then the price is only $35.21 and you would have won $100 or more in 4 of the last 7 years. So almost 3-1 payoff at greater than 50/50 odds.

Interestingly, the odds do not adjust as you increase the stakes. So for $352,110.86 you can arrange to be paid $1 million every day it rains beyond the ninth day. It seems unlikely they would actually honor that price quote.

]]> By: FoolsGold http://blog.oddhead.com/2009/07/16/new-york-june-weatherbill-bet/#comment-550 FoolsGold Fri, 17 Jul 2009 11:54:59 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/?p=789#comment-550 I guess precision in the rain data is greatest when money is directly involved such as in a predictions market. I recall the Chamber of Commerce of Sequim, Washington as dividing all days into either rainy or sunny. However dark and menacing the clouds were all day, if it did not actually rain, that dark, dismal day was declared to be sunny. Well, when there is money riding on a futures contract, search engines have to be more precise and lead to sites that are more precise. Trading futures on rainfall in New Jersey? H'mmm... anyone know where I can hire a pilot who will seed clouds but keep his mouth shut? I guess precision in the rain data is greatest when money is directly involved such as in a predictions market.

I recall the Chamber of Commerce of Sequim, Washington as dividing all days into either rainy or sunny. However dark and menacing the clouds were all day, if it did not actually rain, that dark, dismal day was declared to be sunny.

Well, when there is money riding on a futures contract, search engines have to be more precise and lead to sites that are more precise.

Trading futures on rainfall in New Jersey? H’mmm… anyone know where I can hire a pilot who will seed clouds but keep his mouth shut?

]]> By: Varun Aggarwala http://blog.oddhead.com/2009/07/16/new-york-june-weatherbill-bet/#comment-547 Varun Aggarwala Thu, 16 Jul 2009 16:25:47 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/?p=789#comment-547 I tried playing with figures in the contract and apparently, if we want to get only $1000(max) then the price of contract is less. However if we change this figure to $1500 or above then there is no difference in the price of the contract. It shows that they themselves believe that it would not rain for more than 15 days at max in June 2010. I guess the new yorkers should be happy then :) I tried playing with figures in the contract and apparently, if we want to get only $1000(max) then the price of contract is less. However if we change this figure to $1500 or above then there is no difference in the price of the contract.
It shows that they themselves believe that it would not rain for more than 15 days at max in June 2010. I guess the new yorkers should be happy then :)

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