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	<title>Comments on: Why automated market makers?</title>
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	<link>http://blog.oddhead.com/2010/07/08/why-automated-market-makers/</link>
	<description>Musings of a computer scientist on predictions, odds, and markets</description>
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		<title>By: Panos Ipeirotis</title>
		<link>http://blog.oddhead.com/2010/07/08/why-automated-market-makers/#comment-10280</link>
		<dc:creator>Panos Ipeirotis</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Nov 2010 21:59:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.oddhead.com/?p=8#comment-10280</guid>
		<description>Actually, I was not thinking of cases where the information is the main outcome. I was thinking of using market makers to increase the transaction volume of a market, where the market owners has the incentives to &quot;subsidize&quot; the transaction,.

Think of a Priceline-like scenario: The hotel owner has posted some prices (hidden from the final consumer?). The customer bids a price, which is lower than the lowest price accepted by the hotel, by say $1. In that case, it makes sense to use a &quot;subsidizing&quot; automatic market maker to bridge the gap between bid-ask, and get the transaction to happen. Since the market owner is benefiting by the transaction (e.g., charges a fee equal to x% of the price), then it makes sense to provide the funds that will allow the two parties to transact. Same thing for labor market (e.g. on oDesk I want to hire people at $10/hr, the worker asks for $10.50/hr: the market owner subsidizes the difference, since they make 10% of the overall volume)

There are also the network effects that generate additional benefits when the market is moving. In principle even governments would be interested in doing so, as all transactions generate tax revenue, especially in countries with VAT.

I am not sure if this makes sense. I see strategic considerations here (what to bid in order to take full advantage of the subsidy), the markets do not have any external ground truth (on the other hand, stock markets do not have one either), and other objections.

Any thoughts? I guess there should be other people that have thought about these. They seem pretty straightforward ideas.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Actually, I was not thinking of cases where the information is the main outcome. I was thinking of using market makers to increase the transaction volume of a market, where the market owners has the incentives to &#8220;subsidize&#8221; the transaction,.</p>
<p>Think of a Priceline-like scenario: The hotel owner has posted some prices (hidden from the final consumer?). The customer bids a price, which is lower than the lowest price accepted by the hotel, by say $1. In that case, it makes sense to use a &#8220;subsidizing&#8221; automatic market maker to bridge the gap between bid-ask, and get the transaction to happen. Since the market owner is benefiting by the transaction (e.g., charges a fee equal to x% of the price), then it makes sense to provide the funds that will allow the two parties to transact. Same thing for labor market (e.g. on oDesk I want to hire people at $10/hr, the worker asks for $10.50/hr: the market owner subsidizes the difference, since they make 10% of the overall volume)</p>
<p>There are also the network effects that generate additional benefits when the market is moving. In principle even governments would be interested in doing so, as all transactions generate tax revenue, especially in countries with VAT.</p>
<p>I am not sure if this makes sense. I see strategic considerations here (what to bid in order to take full advantage of the subsidy), the markets do not have any external ground truth (on the other hand, stock markets do not have one either), and other objections.</p>
<p>Any thoughts? I guess there should be other people that have thought about these. They seem pretty straightforward ideas.</p>
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		<title>By: David Pennock</title>
		<link>http://blog.oddhead.com/2010/07/08/why-automated-market-makers/#comment-10243</link>
		<dc:creator>David Pennock</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Nov 2010 13:28:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.oddhead.com/?p=8#comment-10243</guid>
		<description>Good question Panos. I view weatherbill (insurance) and bet365 (gambling) as automated market makers. The reason prediction markets are a good fit is that losing money on average is ok -- it can be seen as a payment for information -- as long as the loss is bounded. I&#039;m sure there are plenty of automated or semi-automated market makers on Wall Street but I&#039;m not too familiar and probably most of them are unpublished for obvious reasons.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Good question Panos. I view weatherbill (insurance) and bet365 (gambling) as automated market makers. The reason prediction markets are a good fit is that losing money on average is ok &#8212; it can be seen as a payment for information &#8212; as long as the loss is bounded. I&#8217;m sure there are plenty of automated or semi-automated market makers on Wall Street but I&#8217;m not too familiar and probably most of them are unpublished for obvious reasons.</p>
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		<title>By: Panos Ipeirotis</title>
		<link>http://blog.oddhead.com/2010/07/08/why-automated-market-makers/#comment-10069</link>
		<dc:creator>Panos Ipeirotis</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Nov 2010 06:19:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.oddhead.com/?p=8#comment-10069</guid>
		<description>A question related to the topic: Are there any applications of automated market makers outside the field of prediction markets?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A question related to the topic: Are there any applications of automated market makers outside the field of prediction markets?</p>
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		<title>By: David Pennock</title>
		<link>http://blog.oddhead.com/2010/07/08/why-automated-market-makers/#comment-3474</link>
		<dc:creator>David Pennock</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 17 Jul 2010 19:37:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.oddhead.com/?p=8#comment-3474</guid>
		<description>@Esayas: I think the new market maker and LMSR are especially well suited for play-money markets, since then the fact that the MM can lose money is not a serious issue. The additional fact that the amount the MM can lose is bounded is quite important though even for play money IMO.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Esayas: I think the new market maker and LMSR are especially well suited for play-money markets, since then the fact that the MM can lose money is not a serious issue. The additional fact that the amount the MM can lose is bounded is quite important though even for play money IMO.</p>
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		<title>By: Esayas</title>
		<link>http://blog.oddhead.com/2010/07/08/why-automated-market-makers/#comment-3357</link>
		<dc:creator>Esayas</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 Jul 2010 15:45:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.oddhead.com/?p=8#comment-3357</guid>
		<description>Hallo,
I would be happy to know  your opinion about advantages of using the new automated market maker for Idea markets which use play money.

Thank you</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hallo,<br />
I would be happy to know  your opinion about advantages of using the new automated market maker for Idea markets which use play money.</p>
<p>Thank you</p>
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		<title>By: Abe</title>
		<link>http://blog.oddhead.com/2010/07/08/why-automated-market-makers/#comment-3270</link>
		<dc:creator>Abe</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Jul 2010 20:04:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.oddhead.com/?p=8#comment-3270</guid>
		<description>Thank you for your comments Jamie.

You are correct to note that if we restrict ourselves to only the positive orthant, the sum of prices never quite reaches 1. Instead, for small alpha, we get values that sum very very very close to one (within machine precision) - this is because 
a*log(exp(1/a)+n-1) ~ a*log(exp(1/a)) = 1 for small a.
The key here is a comparison between n-1 and exp(1/a), where for the values we consider exp(1/a) &gt;&gt;&gt; n-1. Since small alpha are appropriate for this market maker, the bounds we have are still good in practice. This is something we will be clarifying in the journal version.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thank you for your comments Jamie.</p>
<p>You are correct to note that if we restrict ourselves to only the positive orthant, the sum of prices never quite reaches 1. Instead, for small alpha, we get values that sum very very very close to one (within machine precision) &#8211; this is because<br />
a*log(exp(1/a)+n-1) ~ a*log(exp(1/a)) = 1 for small a.<br />
The key here is a comparison between n-1 and exp(1/a), where for the values we consider exp(1/a) &gt;&gt;&gt; n-1. Since small alpha are appropriate for this market maker, the bounds we have are still good in practice. This is something we will be clarifying in the journal version.</p>
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		<title>By: David Pennock</title>
		<link>http://blog.oddhead.com/2010/07/08/why-automated-market-makers/#comment-3269</link>
		<dc:creator>David Pennock</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Jul 2010 20:04:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.oddhead.com/?p=8#comment-3269</guid>
		<description>@smart ass: Octopus is sadly retired. Otherwise I agree. :-)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@smart ass: Octopus is sadly retired. Otherwise I agree. <img src='http://blog.oddhead.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':-)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
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		<title>By: David Pennock</title>
		<link>http://blog.oddhead.com/2010/07/08/why-automated-market-makers/#comment-3268</link>
		<dc:creator>David Pennock</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Jul 2010 20:02:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.oddhead.com/?p=8#comment-3268</guid>
		<description>@Jamie, this is fantastic. Thanks. I like your simplification, both in notation and in how to understand what is going on. I think it would be great if you can generalize the results for a broader class of market makers. We tried but failed to make similar &quot;liquidity-sensitive&quot; modifications to other scoring rules.

Update: Actually I spoke too soon: Abe has now discovered some generalizations.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Jamie, this is fantastic. Thanks. I like your simplification, both in notation and in how to understand what is going on. I think it would be great if you can generalize the results for a broader class of market makers. We tried but failed to make similar &#8220;liquidity-sensitive&#8221; modifications to other scoring rules.</p>
<p>Update: Actually I spoke too soon: Abe has now discovered some generalizations.</p>
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		<title>By: smart ass</title>
		<link>http://blog.oddhead.com/2010/07/08/why-automated-market-makers/#comment-3267</link>
		<dc:creator>smart ass</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Jul 2010 20:01:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.oddhead.com/?p=8#comment-3267</guid>
		<description>why prediction markets? when we have the octopus.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>why prediction markets? when we have the octopus.</p>
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		<title>By: Jamie Brandon</title>
		<link>http://blog.oddhead.com/2010/07/08/why-automated-market-makers/#comment-3259</link>
		<dc:creator>Jamie Brandon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Jul 2010 13:44:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.oddhead.com/?p=8#comment-3259</guid>
		<description>If the description of the algorithm is recast in terms of the variables used above we obtain (I think):

Set r_j = q_j / b(q)
Set k = sum_j exp(r_j)
Set s_j = exp(r_j) / k

p_i(q) = s_i + a * H(s)
sum_i p_i(q) = 1 + a * n * H(s)

where H(s) is the entropy of the distribution s. This seems a much more natural description of what the algorithm is doing, especially if the probability distribution s can be given a physical interpretation (perhaps races between exponential variables). In addition many of the properties proved in the paper, cast in this light, rely only on the fact that s is a distribution and ignore its relation to q. I&#039;m going to try to produce a cost function for which treats s simply as an unspecified function of q - it may be that this can be generalised to a class of market makers.

I would be interested to hear your thoughts on this if you have a moment.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If the description of the algorithm is recast in terms of the variables used above we obtain (I think):</p>
<p>Set r_j = q_j / b(q)<br />
Set k = sum_j exp(r_j)<br />
Set s_j = exp(r_j) / k</p>
<p>p_i(q) = s_i + a * H(s)<br />
sum_i p_i(q) = 1 + a * n * H(s)</p>
<p>where H(s) is the entropy of the distribution s. This seems a much more natural description of what the algorithm is doing, especially if the probability distribution s can be given a physical interpretation (perhaps races between exponential variables). In addition many of the properties proved in the paper, cast in this light, rely only on the fact that s is a distribution and ignore its relation to q. I&#8217;m going to try to produce a cost function for which treats s simply as an unspecified function of q &#8211; it may be that this can be generalised to a class of market makers.</p>
<p>I would be interested to hear your thoughts on this if you have a moment.</p>
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