Comments for Oddhead Blog http://blog.oddhead.com Musings of a computer scientist on predictions, odds, and markets Tue, 07 May 2013 08:17:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.4.2 Comment on Challenge: Derive the Kelly criteria for play money by XRwogannimeieTest http://blog.oddhead.com/2009/03/13/challenge-derive-the-kelly-criteria-for-play-money/#comment-150893 XRwogannimeieTest Tue, 07 May 2013 08:17:18 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/?p=325#comment-150893 There are websites selling a Dolce and Gabbana for as less as $100 where the original is anywhere from $ 1000 to $ 1500. There are a lot of local stores there you will find bootlegs there, just go during the day, bcuz it pretty much the ghetto over there.. A symbol for the kingdom of God, it embraces the celestial and the ephemeral. She has excelled in developing "exclusive" prints and fabrics for Taylor Dress, transforming them into creative designs that are distinct. Womens Nike Air Max 2009 on the design, Andrew Supra Shoes, want to keep going. There are websites selling a Dolce and Gabbana for as less as $100 where the original is anywhere from $ 1000 to $ 1500.

There are a lot of local stores there you will find bootlegs there, just go during the day, bcuz it pretty much the ghetto over there..

A symbol for the kingdom of God, it embraces the celestial and the ephemeral.

She has excelled in developing “exclusive” prints and fabrics for Taylor Dress, transforming them into creative designs that are distinct.

Womens Nike Air Max 2009 on the design, Andrew Supra Shoes, want to keep going.

]]> Comment on Challenge: Derive the Kelly criteria for play money by XRwogannimeieTest http://blog.oddhead.com/2009/03/13/challenge-derive-the-kelly-criteria-for-play-money/#comment-150892 XRwogannimeieTest Tue, 07 May 2013 08:16:56 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/?p=325#comment-150892 Measuring 2 1/8 (L) x 3 3/4 (H) and available in 3 colors; black, lilac, and tan, this could be the perfect gift for any accessorizing lady out there. What are the mistakes Unit脿 di conversione Successful stock market trading begins with a winning trading plan. His early runway collections developed his reputation for controversy and shock tactic, earning him the names "l'efant terrible" in Paris and "The Hooligan of English Fashion" in London and New York. She is like a magician elements of surprise in the shape, detail and print in her creations," he said.. Il ya des styles qui sont grands pour faire correspondre 脿 une tenue et ceux qui sont parfaits pour les sports et les jeux actifs. Measuring 2 1/8 (L) x 3 3/4 (H) and available in 3 colors; black, lilac, and tan, this could be the perfect gift for any accessorizing lady out there.

What are the mistakes Unit脿 di conversione Successful stock market trading begins with a winning trading plan.

His early runway collections developed his reputation for controversy and shock tactic, earning him the names “l’efant terrible” in Paris and “The Hooligan of English Fashion” in London and New York.

She is like a magician elements of surprise in the shape, detail and print in her creations,” he said..

Il ya des styles qui sont grands pour faire correspondre 脿 une tenue et ceux qui sont parfaits pour les sports et les jeux actifs.

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]]> Comment on Challenge: Derive the Kelly criteria for play money by stanley123 http://blog.oddhead.com/2009/03/13/challenge-derive-the-kelly-criteria-for-play-money/#comment-141783 stanley123 Mon, 11 Mar 2013 13:18:48 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/?p=325#comment-141783 www.betprogress.com ok http://www.betprogress.com ok

]]> Comment on Microsoft Research New York City, First Days by David Pennock http://blog.oddhead.com/2012/05/05/microsoft-research-nyc/#comment-92859 David Pennock Sun, 25 Nov 2012 18:54:20 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/?p=2479#comment-92859 Thanks Ricardo. Sure -- you have an amazing team. Thanks Ricardo. Sure — you have an amazing team.

]]> Comment on A toast to the number 303: A redemptive election night for science, and The Signal by David Pennock http://blog.oddhead.com/2012/11/10/signal-redeemed/#comment-86674 David Pennock Sun, 11 Nov 2012 14:57:29 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/?p=2623#comment-86674 Thanks Dan. And thanks for the quote -- love it. You're right, I might as well admit the grass is always greenest right around me. Thanks Dan. And thanks for the quote — love it.

You’re right, I might as well admit the grass is always greenest right around me.

]]> Comment on A toast to the number 303: A redemptive election night for science, and The Signal by Daniel Reeves http://blog.oddhead.com/2012/11/10/signal-redeemed/#comment-86450 Daniel Reeves Sun, 11 Nov 2012 03:37:25 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/?p=2623#comment-86450 Nice! Congrats on the prescience! :) My favorite comment from the post-election twitter frenzy was from Ken Jennings: Romney could still win this if too many Dems accidentally write-in "Nate Silver" with little hearts around it. Btw, your "greener grass" comment is funny/ironic. I think you're the opposite extreme of what that aphorism is warning against. (I'm that way too.) Nice! Congrats on the prescience! :)

My favorite comment from the post-election twitter frenzy was from Ken Jennings:
Romney could still win this if too many Dems accidentally write-in “Nate Silver” with little hearts around it.

Btw, your “greener grass” comment is funny/ironic. I think you’re the opposite extreme of what that aphorism is warning against. (I’m that way too.)

]]> Comment on Congratulations Pete Wurman and Kiva Systems, a bellwether of the automated economy by David Pennock http://blog.oddhead.com/2012/03/22/congrats-pete-wurman-kiva-systems/#comment-86339 David Pennock Sat, 10 Nov 2012 22:09:12 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/?p=2451#comment-86339 Cynthia, thank you for your thoughtful comment. You raise a number of excellent questions and I don't have all the answers. There is no doubt society will have to adapt once machines can handle more and more mechanical tasks. Historically, when technology has replaced humans there have been new jobs for people to do. I agree we may reach a point when that stops happening. At that point, we will have to make decisions as a society. I believe this will involve less focus on "working for a living". Working in the future will be more like hobbies are now. Basic sustenance will be provided by governments or through automatic ownership of shares in companies. Remember, people can also take advantage of automation in their homes. I know this sounds utopian and idealistic but something like this may eventually happen though the transition may be painful for some. This is a fascinating read on the subject: http://marshallbrain.com/robotic-nation.htm Cynthia, thank you for your thoughtful comment. You raise a number of excellent questions and I don’t have all the answers. There is no doubt society will have to adapt once machines can handle more and more mechanical tasks. Historically, when technology has replaced humans there have been new jobs for people to do. I agree we may reach a point when that stops happening. At that point, we will have to make decisions as a society. I believe this will involve less focus on “working for a living”. Working in the future will be more like hobbies are now. Basic sustenance will be provided by governments or through automatic ownership of shares in companies. Remember, people can also take advantage of automation in their homes. I know this sounds utopian and idealistic but something like this may eventually happen though the transition may be painful for some. This is a fascinating read on the subject: http://marshallbrain.com/robotic-nation.htm

]]> Comment on Raise your WiseQ to the 57th power by David Pennock http://blog.oddhead.com/2012/10/06/predictwiseq/#comment-83589 David Pennock Sun, 04 Nov 2012 20:40:55 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/?p=2605#comment-83589 Thanks Antonio. The main goal is the latter: to "run it as a data scientist/researcher to build the most accurate estimation of the probability that candidate X will win". At the same time, we don't want the market maker to experience arbitrary loss. This would lead to hyper inflation in our virtual economy. And we like this to be a realistic prototype that could someday run with real money. Thanks Antonio. The main goal is the latter: to “run it as a data scientist/researcher to build the most accurate estimation of the probability that candidate X will win”.

At the same time, we don’t want the market maker to experience arbitrary loss. This would lead to hyper inflation in our virtual economy. And we like this to be a realistic prototype that could someday run with real money.

]]> Comment on Raise your WiseQ to the 57th power by Antonio http://blog.oddhead.com/2012/10/06/predictwiseq/#comment-81162 Antonio Tue, 30 Oct 2012 12:32:50 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/?p=2605#comment-81162 I fear I haven't understood the goal of your market. Is it to limit losses for the market maker, or is it to obtain the largest possible amount of information from the whole set of bets? That is, do you want to run such a market as a market maker to make profits or do you want to run it as a data scientist/researcher to build the most accurate estimation of the probability that candidate X will win, using information from any type of possible bet relative to this election? Thank you. I fear I haven’t understood the goal of your market. Is it to limit losses for the market maker, or is it to obtain the largest possible amount of information from the whole set of bets?
That is, do you want to run such a market as a market maker to make profits or do you want to run it as a data scientist/researcher to build the most accurate estimation of the probability that candidate X will win, using information from any type of possible bet relative to this election?
Thank you.

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