Comments for Oddhead Blog http://blog.oddhead.com Musings of a computer scientist on predictions, odds, and markets Wed, 26 Aug 2015 16:31:38 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.1.7 Comment on Why automated market makers? by Erik http://blog.oddhead.com/2010/07/08/why-automated-market-makers/#comment-397337 Wed, 26 Aug 2015 16:31:38 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/?p=8#comment-397337 Thank you for releasing your research and making it so accessible and relatively easy to grasp. I’ve learned a lot in the last day going through some posts and papers. I know this is an old post, but I’m hoping you or someone would be able to give me some insight into whether my line of logic is sound.

The MM models here take into an account any number of possible outcomes, each outcome represented by `q_i`. Correct me if I’m wrong, but it seems like it assumes that one and only one outcome can be correct and cash in, while any shares in the other outcomes eventually become worthless.

I’m thinking of an application using play money where any number of outcomes can end up cashing in at different amounts. I would love for it to be purely trader-powered but if there are not many people playing at first, especially in a market with a large number of stocks, there wouldn’t be much activity.

Here’s a basic example of what I’m thinking: think of each “stock” (not sure what the proper term is so I’ll use stock) corresponding with a contestant at a ring toss game with 500+ contestants. Each player plays the same game individually, and each player’s performance is (for the most part) not affected by any other player’s performance. For each ring a player successfully tosses onto the peg, their stock is worth \$1. So if David ends up getting 8 rings on the peg, that corresponding stock will cash in at \$8. So there is no real set limit to the total price of all stocks. Would the MM have to act in a very different way than described?

Let’s also say the MM can be fed predictions to base prices on. According to my research and stats, I put an expected value of David’s ring count to be 7.429, for a price of \$7.43. Is it possible to use that prediction price as a base, then use the result from a current MM model as a ratio to somehow act on it?

If David sprains a finger on his throwing hand before the game, my prediction would jump down to \$3.75. Conversely, if he ate his Wheaties this morning my prediction would change to \$9.62. It seems like I would want my base price to have a varying degree of effect on a stock, depending on market size (much as you control the liquidity variable `b` in your model.)

I hope someone can validate or invalidate these thoughts, and hopefully point me in the right direction of where to look for answers. I’m a software engineer looking for a model to best implement into my toy project.

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Comment on Why automated market makers? by Erik http://blog.oddhead.com/2010/07/08/why-automated-market-makers/#comment-397327 Wed, 26 Aug 2015 14:50:59 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/?p=8#comment-397327 Hello, I’m getting through the Flexible Market Maker paper and trying to understand the algorithm changes over LMSR, particularly how the liquidity variable ‘b’ is calculated. In the paper you say it is `alpha * sum(q_i)`, the alpha constant multiplied by total number of shares outstanding? So what happens at the beginning when no shares have been bought yet? Does b = 0? That seems to cause problems in the other formulas.

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Comment on Challenge: Low variance craps strategy by Benjamin Franks http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/03/03/challenge-low-variance-craps-strategy/#comment-396858 Fri, 21 Aug 2015 10:23:17 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/03/03/challenge-low-variance-craps-strategy/#comment-396858 The online casino bonuses are a wonderful way to begin playing games in the casino websites. On my casino website, the players can find a 100% matchup bonus. The players also get a chance to get first, second and third deposit bonuses. Here, the players can certainly get free spins as rewards in many slot games and in certain promotional offers as well. We also offer diverse forms of promotional deals on daily and weekly basis.

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Comment on US gambling laws: Bizarre, illogical, & hypocritical. So what's legal? by Rachel Bilson http://blog.oddhead.com/2006/10/16/us-gambling-laws-bizarre-illogical-hypocritical-so-whats-legal/#comment-395696 Mon, 10 Aug 2015 10:30:03 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2006/10/16/us-gambling-laws-bizarre-illogical-hypocritical-so-whats-legal/#comment-395696 Online casinos are the only places on the web where the casino games are offered and the players can actually make money while playing these games. the players can join our newly founded online casino website and play all sorts of online casino games here. They can see that our promotional offers are of many types and we also offer multiple types of small rewards to the players every here and then. Join us today to start an incredible casino journey.

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Comment on Challenge: Low variance craps strategy by Kalle http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/03/03/challenge-low-variance-craps-strategy/#comment-394954 Mon, 03 Aug 2015 08:28:46 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/03/03/challenge-low-variance-craps-strategy/#comment-394954 Its gonna be hard to beat the casinos on craps with system only, one of the best way is online casinos with good craps strat and with good bonuses! But great post tho!

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Comment on Betting on Sirius and XM to … die by MUSCLE13 http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/04/18/betting-on-sirius-and-xm-to-die/#comment-394937 Mon, 03 Aug 2015 04:50:02 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/04/18/betting-on-sirius-and-xm-to-die/#comment-394937 INCREASED 2015 GUIDANCE

“Our performance in the first half has been phenomenal on all fronts,” Frear added. “As a result, we are increasing guidance across the board for subscribers, revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow. Our adjusted EBITDA guidance includes approximately \$19 million of incremental expense from the reported royalty litigation settlement that will be reflected in the second half of 2015. Reported free cash flow in the second half of 2015 will exclude the cash payment we expect to make this month under the settlement.”

Our full year 2015 guidance is as follows:

Net self-pay subscriber additions of approximately 1.6 million,
Total net subscriber additions of approximately 1.8 million,
Revenue of approximately \$4.5 billion,
Adjusted EBITDA of approximately \$1.62 billion, and
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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/siriusxm-reports-second-quarter-2015-110000250.html

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Comment on WeatherBill shows the way toward usable combinatorial prediction markets by licensed and regulated casino online http://blog.oddhead.com/2008/08/19/weatherbill-combinatorial-prediction-market/#comment-394296 Tue, 28 Jul 2015 08:01:29 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2008/08/19/weatherbill-combinatorial-prediction-market/#comment-394296 The gaming world provides us thousands of games on various systems.
An example may be a vertical unfold that solely price
\$130 to determine, but might return \$870.

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Comment on WeatherBill shows the way toward usable combinatorial prediction markets by spelfruitautomaten.com http://blog.oddhead.com/2008/08/19/weatherbill-combinatorial-prediction-market/#comment-394294 Tue, 28 Jul 2015 07:29:44 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2008/08/19/weatherbill-combinatorial-prediction-market/#comment-394294 Het is mogelijk om een uiterst geavanceerde poker te spelen overwegen
de stand en grafische resultaten . EEN? Toch is de theorie ‘ de
meer uitdagende shuffle u gebruik maken , hoe beter
spel moet je ‘ is absoluut ongepast .

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Comment on <begin> Oddhead blog… by Emerson http://blog.oddhead.com/2006/10/10/begin-oddhead-blog/#comment-393120 Sat, 18 Jul 2015 08:48:11 +0000 http://www.blog.oddhead.com/?p=703#comment-393120 I do believe all of the ideas you have introduced in your
post. They’re really convincing and will definitely work.
Still, the posts are too brief for novices. May just you please lengthen them a bit from next time?
Thank you for the post.

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Comment on Challenge: Low variance craps strategy by Peitro http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/03/03/challenge-low-variance-craps-strategy/#comment-390524 Thu, 25 Jun 2015 14:29:13 +0000 http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/03/03/challenge-low-variance-craps-strategy/#comment-390524 http://winhere.vegas/
Online casinos are much better than traditional ones in my opinion. There are just so many advantages that I fail to see how so much people still continue going to traditional ones instead of online ones. Maybe someday they will come to understand, but until then we will have to wait.

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