http://blog.oddhead.com Musings of a computer scientist and Yahoo on prediction markets, gambling, and estimating the odds of everything Fri, 09 May 2008 15:02:29 +0000 http://backend.userland.com/rss092 en Two mathematicians Fred and Fran were having a baby girl, their first child! They sought the perfect name, a name that would simultaneously reflect togetherness, relationships, and individuality in their burgeoning family. Day and night they debated, rejecting name after name. Finally, they had it! The perfect name! They named ... http://blog.oddhead.com/2008/05/09/fred-fran-and-baby-makes-three/ I am happy to announce the following prediction market workshop and solicit submissions and participants. ======================================================================= Call for Contributions and Participation Third Workshop on Prediction Markets http://betforgood.com/events/pm2008/index.html Afternoon of July 9, 2008 Chicago, Illinois In conjunction with the ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce (EC'08) SUBMISSIONS DUE May 23, 2008 ======================================================================= We solicit research contributions, system demonstrations, and participants for the ... http://blog.oddhead.com/2008/05/05/call-for-papers-and-participation-workshop-on-prediction-markets-chicago-july-9-2008/ I am happy to announce the following ad auctions workshop and solicit submissions and participants. ======================================================================= Call for Papers Fourth Workshop on Ad Auctions http://research.yahoo.com/workshops/ad-auctions-2008/ July 8-9, 2008 Chicago, Illinois, USA SUBMISSIONS DUE MAY 11, 2008 In conjunction with the ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce (EC'08) ======================================================================= We solicit submissions for the Fourth Workshop on Ad Auctions, to be held July ... http://blog.oddhead.com/2008/05/05/call-for-papers-and-participation-workshop-on-ad-auctions-chicago-july-8-9-2008/ If ever there was an excuse for me to use the cliché pregnant with possibilities, this is it. May 1, 2008 could signal a turning point for the prediction markets industry.* Yesterday, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a request for public comments as they mull over the legal and ... http://blog.oddhead.com/2008/05/02/a-historic-mayday-the-us-governments-call-for-help-on-regulating-prediction-markets/ Reuters recently ran a story on political prediction markets, quoting prices from intrade and IEM. (Apparently the story was buzzed up to the Yahoo! homepage and made the Drudge Report.) The reporter phrased prices in terms of the candidates' percent chance of winning: Traders ... gave Democratic front-runner Barack Obama an 86 ... http://blog.oddhead.com/2008/04/26/reporting-prediction-market-prices/