Hurricane Futures Market + Election Day

I just discovered this real-money Hurricane Futures Market run by the University of Miami in conjunction with the University of Iowa Electronic Market. Looks very thinly traded so far but worth keeping an eye on.

Also, today is election day so “boffins” and a “staffters” like me are watching the prediction market maps that Lance created with great interest. It looks like Senate control is coming down to two close races: Missouri and Virginia, both leaning 60% toward Democrats as of this writing. If we assumed these outcomes were statistically independent (which they’re not), then that would give a 64% chance of Republicans maintaining control of the Senate. The TradeSports market for Republicans keeping Senate control stands at 70%.

One thought on “Hurricane Futures Market + Election Day”

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *