Monthly Archives: September 2007

commentary, fun, oddhead blog

The Economist makes up

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Here’s an update on my fractured relationship with The Economist magazine.

To my pleasant surprise, Alan Press, Vice President of Marketing & Circulation at The Economist actually posted a comment on my blog agreeing to cease and desist their renewal scare tactics!

We agree, the language is bad. We are discontinuing the use of this letter going forward, and will replace it with a message that makes clear how much we value readers like you.

(I didn’t notice the concession at first, as his comment got stuck in my Akismet spam folder for several days.)

I thought this was a stand-up gesture. I temporarily felt all warm and fuzzy about the good old days when The Economist and I first met. In all seriousness, I do appreciate the public comment and the prompt/effective action.

So are we getting back together?

That’s none of your business!

In any case, I’m happy to see blogplaining/freedbacking actually have an effect.

prediction markets, publication, research

Computational aspects of prediction markets: Book chapter and extended bibliography

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Rahul Sami and I wrote a chapter called “Computational aspects of prediction markets” in the book Algorithmic Game Theory, Cambridge University Press, forthcoming 2007.

You can download an almost-final version of our chapter here.

Update 2007/09/19: You can now also download the entire book Algorithmic Game Theory: username agt1user , password camb2agt . If you like it, you can buy it.

In the course of writing the chapter, we compiled an extended annotated bibliography that ended up being too long to publish in its entirety in the book. So we trimmed the bibliographic notes in the book to cover only the most directly relevant citations. You can download the full extended bibliography here.

Here is the abstract of our chapter:

Prediction markets (also known as information markets) are markets established to aggregate knowledge and opinions about the likelihood of future events. This chapter is intended to give an overview of the current research on computational aspects of these markets. We begin with a brief survey of prediction market research, and then give a more detailed description of models and results in three areas: the computational complexity of operating markets for combinatorial events; the design of automated market makers; and the analysis of the computational power and speed of a market as an aggregation tool. We conclude with a discussion of open problems and directions for future research.

If you’re interested in this topic, you might also take a look at our recent paper on Betting on permutations, published after the book chapter was completed.

Finally, for a higher-level treatment, here is a pre-print version of a short letter on “Combinatorial betting” that we submitted to SIGecom Exchanges.

advertising, commentary, prediction markets, yootleoffer

Predictions: Apple bites, Google eats

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Happy 5768 everyone!

Time for some predictions.

  1. Apple bites into PC pie. Apple Computer (remember them?) will attain at least 30% PC market share by 5772.

    Probability: 40% ; Willing to stake: $Y20

    On the front lines, silver Powerbooks are infiltrating in droves. At techie conventions and computer science conferences, penetration has gone from almost zero to something approaching 1/3 by anecdotal evidence. Wandering about these venues, it’s not terribly uncommon to see a table of three or four who apparently all agree to think different. At Yahoo!, more and more of Jobs’s ministers are simply preaching to the converted. In our Yahoo! Research New York office, for example, laps are topped at least two to one with half-eaten half-glowing apples. Even tech celeb Marc Andreessen has returned to the fold.

    But can the Apple bug jump from geeks to grandmas? (Well, my daughters’ grandma is already infected.) I’m guessing so. After all, these same alphadopters led the way to mp3s, Google, Wikipedia, Slashdot, blogs, Firefox, Digg, and Homestar Runner, unlocking remarkable truths along the way like “web search can be monetized”, “Really Simple trumps Really Smart”, and “give up now, Friendster has already won”. (Oops.)

    Why is there an Apple renaissance on the desktop? A big reason is that the OS’s natural monopoly is not so natural anymore. Today, the browser is the most important piece of software on your computer, and a viable cross-platform browser (Firefox) exists that almost every web site designs to. A second reason: it turns out that Intel chips are faster and better than PowerPC chips after all, despite decades of vehement Apple fanboy arguments to the contrary. Third, Apple’s built-in iLife software suite really is astonishingly useful and well designed and speaks to the new killer apps of the desktop: pictures, music, video, web, and email. A final reason is, well, Apple is cool, and technology is at least as much about fashion as function, or at least more than geeks would like to admit.

    Disagreers can accept my yootleoffer or put your play money where your mouth is on related bets at PPX and Inkling.

    (Side note: My take on Apple’s fumbled iPhone price cut: I believe that Apple reacted in fear of the looming gPhone. However, if history is a guide, that fear may be an exaggerated fear of the unknown.)

  2. Google eats its own dog food. Google buys an advertisement by the end of 5768.

    Probability: 60% ; Willing to stake: $Y20

    Google is the king of selling advertisements. So they must believe that advertising is effective, right? Then why doesn’t Google advertise for itself? (I’m not counting recruiting ads.) I’m guessing the reason is that they don’t have to. As a media darling, they get more than enough free press to catalyze their already monstrous word of mouth. I expect that as the glow wears off, as some of the not not evil jabs — deserved or not — start to stick, and as they settle into Big Company mode, you will start to see Google spots on TV and elsewhere.

2007/09/17 Update: Sean McNee noticed that Google is advertising Google Apps to enterprise customers on VentureBeat and the Seattle Times [example ad image]. As a result, let me update my prediction to “Google buys a TV ad for Google.com aimed at mass consumers”.

2007/09/19 Update: Maverick blogger, Maverick owner, Yahoo! benefactor, and uber alphadopter Mark Cuban is dancing with the Steves.

2010 Update: I was right, just 1.5 years too early. In other words, I was wrong.

commentary, fun

My ugly breakup with The Economist

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Have you ever broken up with someone and their reaction was so ugly that that it made you realize how glad you are to be out of the relationship?

Me either.

But that’s how I felt after dropping my subscription to The Economist magazine.

Here is the text of my final renewal notice:

Dear David Pennock,

Your timing could hardly be worse.

Just as the world is connecting,
opening up unprecedented opportunities …

…you go and break your connection to The Economist.

Is it the bottom line? Cost cutting? It’s true you’ll save a bit by cutting The Economist. But think what you’ll lose. Bottom lines don’t replace communication lines. Won’t you please use this opportunity to reinstate your subscription and restore your special world-connection?

Or, as I interpret it: “Please please please, you stupid cheapskate.” I guess there’s nothing like a pretentious magazine marketing department scorned.

Sorry, Economist, you have a lot going for you and I enjoyed our time together, but it’s time to move on.