There’s a Prediction Market Industry Association (sort of).
Is it time for a Prediction Market Institute dedicated to scientific advancement and engineering innovation in prediction markets?
On the face of it, the concept is ludicrous: there is no “Support Vector Machine Institute”, for example. But a bunch of tech companies have PM research efforts of some sort, including Google, HP, Microsoft, and Yahoo!. Folks at these companies have come together to lobby, to speak, and to exchange academic research results. Would YaHPooglesoft fund such an institute? If not, who? Chris Masse, who adds “PM journalism” to the list of institute goals, is on the case.
Where does this leave non market based mechanisms? Do they have no value?
Fair enough: One could ask the same question about a “Prediction Institute”.
It’s not necessarily about value but about where to focus.
Note there already is an “International Institute of Forecasters” and it even has a “Special Interest Group on Prediction Markets”.
I don’t know. Why does a “Prediction Institute” imply a market based mechanism? I think predicting and forecasting are roughly the same thing. Markets are but one means of predicting or forecasting.
Oops, a clarification: I meant one could ask “Should there be a Prediction Institute?”. I agree a Prediction Institute does not imply market-based, and that prediction and forecasting are roughly the same.
I was saying that in a way there already is a “Prediction Institute” and its called the “International Institute of Forecastersâ€.
I was thinking out loud whether the word “Prediction” is too broad. Then again, Chris Masse makes sense when he argues that the organization can keep “market” out of the name and still have a pretty heavy emphasis on markets and related “crowd wisdom” techniques.