Jan 172007
I’ve been MarginalRevolutioned and kottked [?]. 
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Musings of a computer scientist on predictions, odds, and markets
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- Yahoo! Labs Competition Yields Better Ranking Model | News | Communications of the ACM September 2, 2010Writeup of the Learning to Rank challenge, created by Yahoo! researcher and using Webscope data. Over 1000 teams participated. […]
- the hindenburg omen is scary but so are the fundamentals: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance August 31, 2010Talk about the danger of overfitting: "Complex and esoteric even in the world of technical indicators, the Hindenburg Omen is triggered when [four narrow conditions] occur"... "The Hindenburg Omen has a roughly 25% accuracy rate in predicting big market upheaval since 1987."... Is that precision or recall or ? See also http://en.wikipedia […]
- Inherent Uncertainty: Prediction Markets and Learning August 31, 2010Nice summary of Yiling Chen and Jenn Wortman Vaughan's result equating LMSR market maker with online learning expert algorithms. […]
- Navia Systems August 30, 2010"We design probabilistic computers, a new class of hardware and software that embraces uncertainty to generate inferences. Unlike current computers, which are built for logical deduction and precise arithmetic with no room for ambiguity, our computers are built for guessing the meaning behind inherently ambiguous data. Our first product, Veritable, solv […]
- Logo Design, Web Design, Design Contests | 99designs.com August 29, 2010crowdsourced logo/web design: designers compete to complete your task and you pick the best. […]
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